The U.S.-China Tariff Truce: A Turning Point for Global Trade and What Comes Next

The economic battle between the United States and China—two of the world's largest economies—has dominated headlines for years, unsettling markets and reshaping global trade flows. But in a surprising turn, 2025 began with a de-escalation: a 90-day truce that significantly reduces tariffs and aims to reestablish trust between both nations.

This article explores what this truce really means in figures, who benefits, and how it will reshape international trade. We’ll also dive into how this affects freight forwarders specifically, with insight into rates, volumes, and operational forecasts.

The Agreement: A Brief Overview

On May 14, 2025, both the United States and China agreed to a short-term truce that reduces U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from an average of 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods like agriculture and heavy machinery from 125% to 10%.

While this is not a full resolution, it is a de-escalation aimed at giving negotiators breathing room to pursue a long-term solution.

Shipping and Trade in Numbers

Within days of the announcement, the impact on international shipping was clear:

Hapag-Lloyd reported a 50% surge in container bookings from China to the U.S.

U.S. agricultural exports saw immediate inquiries rise by 28%.

Major ports in Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Shanghai reported a significant uptick in incoming and outgoing TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units).

Industry analysts expect global trade to grow by 2.5% in 2025, reversing a previous forecast of only 1.8% amid ongoing tariff pressures.

Freight Forwarders: A New Era of Opportunity and Challenge

This sudden spike in demand has triggered a ripple effect in the freight forwarding industry:

1. Short-Term Boom in Bookings

With companies rushing to take advantage of the 90-day tariff reduction, forwarders are experiencing:

Higher-than-usual booking volumes for China-to-U.S. lanes.

A shift from long-term contracts to spot market bookings, as shippers prioritize speed.

2. Spot Rates Expected to Rise

Trans-Pacific spot freight rates are projected to increase 15–20% through Q2 and Q3 of 2025, driven by:

Sudden demand spikes

Capacity tightening

Container repositioning imbalances

3. Pressure on Capacity and Equipment

Vessel space and container availability are becoming more competitive. Freight forwarders must plan ahead to secure:

Vessel slots

Warehousing and transloading capacity in U.S. West Coast ports

Some forwarders are already advising clients to shift to alternate Asian ports (like Vietnam or Malaysia) to reduce risk from capacity bottlenecks in Chinese ports.

4. Increased Operational Complexity

Customs clearance is being expedited in many jurisdictions due to reduced tariffs, but forwarders must stay nimble. Key changes include:

Dynamic tariff classifications

Real-time rate recalculations

Surge in “just-in-time” orders

Sector Outlook: Trade Volumes and Economic Growth

Despite the truce, both U.S. and Chinese economies face headwinds:

U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to slow from 2.1% to 1.7% in 2025.

China’s GDP growth may drop to 4.1%, reflecting internal debt and demographic shifts.

Still, the reduction in tariffs could temporarily stabilize demand in sensitive sectors like:

Consumer electronics

Agricultural commodities

Renewable energy equipment

Auto parts

Freight forwarders who specialize in these sectors are likely to benefit in the short term.

What Comes Next? Trends and Tendencies

The truce is a bandage—not a cure. Here’s where the trends are heading:

Re-Negotiation Cycles

Expect more 90-day extensions. Negotiators are trying to build mutual economic incentives for deeper reforms, including IP protection, forced tech transfer restrictions, and fair competition frameworks.

Diversified Sourcing Continues

Even with lower tariffs, many Western businesses will continue to diversify manufacturing away from China. Freight forwarders will need to build stronger networks in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Eastern Europe.

Digital Logistics Gets a Boost

The truce has sparked renewed investment in AI-driven logistics, with digital forwarders gaining an edge in:

Real-time tracking

Dynamic pricing

Predictive capacity planning

Conclusion: What This Means for Freight Forwarders

The 90-day tariff truce is a unique opportunity and a challenge for freight forwarders. Here’s what they should do:

Be Agile – Quickly adapt to volume spikes and shifting trade lanes.

Invest in Visibility – Tools that offer real-time data will provide a competitive edge.

Plan for Rate Volatility – Spot rates are unpredictable. Use hedging strategies or pre-book when possible.

Educate Clients – Many shippers are unaware of the implications. Help them navigate classification codes, customs rules, and capacity planning.

If the truce extends, we may see stabilization and rate normalization by the end of 2025. If it fails, the chaos of 2018–2020 could return—only with new global players in the mix.

In any case, freight forwarders are no longer just intermediaries. In 2025 and beyond, they are strategic advisors at the core of global trade.